UFC 317, set for June 28 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, promises a night of high-stakes mixed martial arts. While official betting odds often focus on clear favorites, the sport’s unpredictable nature frequently delivers stunning upsets.
This highly anticipated event features multiple matchups where underdogs could defy the pre-fight predictions. Understanding the potential for these surprising victories enhances the viewing experience for informed fans. Put simply, the more you know, the more rewarding your viewing experience will be.
This article spotlights several key fighters who are poised to challenge the established odds and explores their potential paths to victory against more favored opponents.
Championship Contender: Kai Kara-France’s Moment
Kai Kara-France (25-11) is slated to face reigning flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja (29-5) in the co-main event. At the time of writing, Kara-France enters this title fight as a significant +210 underdog, contrasting with Pantoja’s strong -258 as favorite.
When analyzing MMA odds, such disparities often highlight undervalued fighters with upset potential, exactly where Kara-France now stands.
The champion, Pantoja, known as “The Cannibal,” has been a favorite for most of his UFC career. However, Kara-France, nicknamed “Don’t Blink,” is coming off a crucial knockout victory over Steve Erceg.
This impressive win allowed him to rebound from two prior consecutive losses against Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi. His recent striking prowess indicates a clear threat to the champion, despite the odds.
Champion’s Historical Dominance
Alexandre Pantoja’s remarkable career includes two instances where he upset the odds against Brandon Moreno. He successfully dethroned Moreno via split decision at UFC 290 in 2023, claiming the flyweight title.
Pantoja then defended his championship by defeating Brandon Royval for a second time, and also made quick work of Australian challenger Steve Erceg. His consistent victories against top contenders demonstrate his high level of skill and championship pedigree.
Kara-France’s Path to Rebound
Kara-France’s recent knockout of Steve Erceg showcased his power and precision, demonstrating his capability to finish fights. This victory is critical for his momentum, providing a strong platform for challenging Pantoja.
His determination to overcome previous setbacks against elite opponents, including Moreno, highlights his resilience. Kara-France’s ability to capitalize on openings will be vital against the formidable champion.
Flyweight Firepower: Royval-Van Added to UFC 317
Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval remains on the International Fight Week card, but his dance partner has changed. Sixth-ranked Manel Kape pulled out of the bout on 9 June with a foot fracture, and 23-year-old phenom Joshua Van has accepted the fight on 18 days’ notice for UFC 317 on 28 June in Las Vegas.
Royval’s Championship-Level Seasoning
Royval (17-7) is still the division’s No. 1 contender, having twice challenged (and twice fallen to) champion Alexandre Pantoja. Those five-round lessons have given him the poise and tactical depth that most flyweights struggle to acquire. Against a short-notice opponent, he will lean on that big-fight composure, slick scramble chains, and his ability to find opportunistic submissions even when hurt.
Van’s rapid rise — and the Betting Market’s Respect
Van rocketed into the spotlight only recently, starching Bruno Silva with a late TKO at UFC 316 to extend his winning streak to four. Books were quick to install him as the favourite, opening between -125 and -260 across major sites, while Royval sits between +105 and +220, a spread mirroring the numbers originally hung for the cancelled Kape matchup.
Ranked No. 10 and only two years into his UFC run, Van now gets a chance to leapfrog the pack; an upset of the top contender would almost certainly rocket him into the title conversation.
Middleweight Ambition: Paulo Costa’s Challenge
Paulo Costa, a Brazilian fighter, enters his middleweight clash against Roman Kopylov as a +210 underdog. Kopylov, representing Russia, is currently favored at -258. Despite the odds, Costa is well-known for his explosive power and aggressive fighting style.
His ability to deliver fight-ending strikes makes him a constant threat, capable of turning the tide in any given moment. Costa’s experience competing against top-ranked middleweights provides him with a tactical edge. This bout could easily become an upset, given his capacity for sudden finishes.
Heavyweight Hope: Justin Tafa’s Uphill Battle
In a compelling heavyweight bout, Justin Tafa of New Zealand faces Jhonata Diniz, a Brazilian fighter. Tafa enters this contest as the most significant underdog on the main card, holding +270 odds. Diniz is heavily favored at -340, highlighting the challenge Tafa faces.
Tafa will need to rely on his formidable punching power and durability to overcome such steep odds. Heavyweight fights are notoriously unpredictable, with one powerful strike capable of changing the entire outcome. This matchup embodies the high-risk, high-reward potential of an underdog victory.
Strawweight Standout: Viviane Araújo’s Opportunity
Viviane Araújo, from Brazil, is listed as a +195 underdog in her women’s strawweight bout against Tracy Cortez of the United States. Cortez is favored at -238 odds. Araújo is currently ranked #8 in the division, while Cortez is ranked #10.
Despite the odds suggesting she is less likely to win, Araújo’s higher ranking indicates her proven quality within the strawweight division. Her skills and experience position her as a strong candidate to pull off an upset victory. This bout presents a chance for Araújo to climb higher in the competitive rankings.
Lightweight Lurker: Beneil Dariush’s Experience
Beneil Dariush, representing the United States, is a veteran lightweight with +140 odds against Brazil’s Renato Moicano, who is favored at -166. Dariush is ranked #9 in the lightweight division, with Moicano just behind at #10.
Although Dariush isn’t as steep an underdog as others on the card, his vast experience and versatile skill set make him a serious threat. His adaptability and ability to implement diverse game plans give him a strong chance to outmaneuver Moicano. Given Dariush’s consistent performances at the elite level, this matchup may be far more competitive than the odds indicate.
The Unpredictable Nature of Octagon Battles
UFC 317 is poised to deliver an exciting night of mixed martial arts, with several compelling matchups where underdogs could create unforgettable moments. Fighters like Kai Kara-France, Brandon Royval, Paulo Costa, and Justin Tafa face significant odds, yet each possesses unique attributes that will challenge their more favored opponents.
The inherent unpredictability of MMA ensures that every bout offers a chance for upsets. Fans can anticipate a thrilling event where strategic prowess and sheer determination might rewrite the script in the Octagon.
