The lightweight title was unified on Sunday night, and the people who watched the actual fight saw something the bookmakers had quietly refused to price in. Ilia Topuria walked to the Octagon as a 1.14 favourite. Justin Gaethje stood across from him at roughly 4.5. Eighty-five percent of the implied probability sat with the undefeated Spaniard. NPR’s coverage of the event lays out the full backdrop, including the political weight a UFC card carried on the South Lawn for the first time. Four rounds after the opening bell, Topuria’s corner was waving him off the stool with a likely broken orbital bone and an eye that had stopped opening.
Where the 1.14 came from
The first professional sporting event on the South Lawn of the White House had turned into
